A comparison of Bering Sea ecosystem energy pathways in warm versus cold years


Kelly Kearney, Al Hermann, Ivonne Ortiz, and Kerim Aydin

Ed Farley, Ellen Yasumishi


2016 PICES Annual Meeting

Yukon and Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon


  • Returns have been declining over the past several years
  • Hypothesis: first spring and winter at sea are critical period for juvenile survival
  • How do warm and cold years differ?
    • Physics?
    • Primary production?
    • Pathways to mesozooplankton and benthos?

The ROMS Bering10K domain

The ROMS Bering10K domain

The ROMS Bering10K domain

Warm vs Cold: oscillating control hypothesis

How does sea ice perform in the ROMS model?

How does sea ice perform in the ROMS model?

How does sea ice perform in the ROMS model?

How does sea ice perform in the ROMS model?

How does sea ice perform in the ROMS model?

The BESTNPZ food web

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Do food web pathways differ?

Conclusions


  • Modeled sea ice extent matches observations, but melt is late.
  • Primary production pathways differ between warm and cold years.
  • Modeled mesozooplankton and benthos are not strongly sensitive to these differing food pathways.